Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 38.311261 41.728206 45.480135 49.937837 55.132711 61.049939 68.379917
2025-02-16 32.843117 37.311238 42.572823 49.341256 57.996578 68.963848 84.392965
2025-02-23 29.518027 34.442289 40.510472 48.750703 60.016221 75.507525 99.737632
2025-03-02 26.989325 32.099921 38.609174 47.815470 61.077403 80.584133 114.082439
2025-03-09 25.154531 30.389507 37.242077 47.275174 62.407814 86.084689 130.629465
2025-03-16 23.287237 28.444858 35.328583 45.663311 61.793471 88.264301 141.918099
2025-03-23 22.719740 28.171109 35.644072 47.266091 66.324928 99.927390 176.680976
2025-03-30 21.673247 27.146410 34.786918 46.963904 67.650255 106.120486 202.796049
2025-04-06 20.660444 26.093368 33.792588 46.317902 68.250232 111.013212 228.600868
2025-04-13 19.511190 24.775865 32.310731 44.737305 66.946853 111.695548 243.112822
2025-04-20 19.230411 24.684129 32.645500 46.144866 71.317827 125.735344 311.696066
2025-04-27 18.905874 24.502441 32.819179 47.284443 75.358780 140.408144 402.819255
2025-05-04 18.346795 23.966199 32.440492 47.497404 77.740621 152.310652 507.442847
2025-05-11 17.698722 23.265310 31.759326 47.114617 78.846583 161.384286 622.194468
2025-05-18 17.073934 22.566574 31.034125 46.576598 79.524479 169.579201 761.990869
2025-05-25 16.434112 21.813782 30.174328 45.707141 79.317778 175.041392 907.531326
2025-06-01 15.911338 21.218184 29.538550 45.204155 79.889303 183.459612 1146.716630
2025-06-08 15.240092 20.364128 28.428794 43.702040 77.864538 182.087159 1250.748206
2025-06-15 15.149595 20.415674 28.839411 45.195699 83.434157 211.950611 2475.093136
2025-06-22 14.758475 19.972523 28.380806 44.914248 84.459580 224.533420 3906.830744
2025-06-29 14.338307 19.466658 27.788389 44.312321 84.549991 233.268958 6208.827836
2025-07-06 13.799722 18.752860 26.804723 42.838109 82.086105 228.992283 7102.147967
2025-07-13 13.734057 18.799095 27.149133 44.151033 87.548331 267.968420 146288.019279